Wednesday, December 15, 2010

SOJ? Here we go again.

In the 40 years since the Jets lasted tasted Super Bowl gold, and since then Jets history has been marked by futility, inconsistency, and failure.  So much so, their failure has taken on a name of its own: Same Ole Jets.  2010 appeared to possibly be the year that bucked the trend.  The Jets raced out to a 9-2 record with victories over the hated Patriots and Dolphins, and were tied for the top record in football.

Then the past 2 weeks happened.  The Jets were handed embarrassing back to back losses to the same rival teams they beat earlier in the year: a 45-3 thumping to the Pats in Foxboro, then a horribly boring 10-6 loss to the Fins at home.  Now 9-4 with road games against the Steelers (where the Jets have never won) and the 9-4 Bears... 9-6 and a playoff berth on the line in Week 17 looks like distinct possibility.

The Jets offense has been off track: 9 points in the last 2 games combined.  Sanchez, after starting the first 4 games with 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, has thrown 8 touchdowns to 12 interceptions in the last 9.  The Jets have played 6 games against teams who currently hold winning records: they are 2-4 in those games.  The defense has been inconsistent; great performances don't carry from quarter to quarter or week to week.  The defense plays fantastic for most of the game against Houston, only to falter in the 4th quarter; great against the Bengals, terrible against the Pats, then great again against the Fins.  Special teams has overall been solid, though unspectacular and Weatherford has been spotty.

As disappointing as the personnel has been, the coaching has been even more disappointing.  Rex Ryan's clock management has come under fire in recent games, so much so that it has been described by WFAN host Mark Malusis as "Herman Edwards-esque".  Cat calls for Brian Schottenheimer's job as offensive coordinator have intensified as his gameplans have been unimaginative.  The low point came during a punt return, where strength and conditioning coach Sal Alosi purposely tripped Miami cornerback/gunner Nolan Carroll.  I mean, come on now!  Some have coined the Jets locker room as a "frat house" and the Carroll trip was something deplorable that carries over from that type of locker room.

The postseason, which seemed to be a certainty 2 weeks ago, is now going to be a fight.  The Pats (11-2) are in, and presumably the Steelers (10-3) will get in soon.  Beyond those 2, the playoff picture is muddy with 3 games left.  Since the Pats have the AFC East all but locked up, the Jets are going to have to test themselves against the Wildcard field.  The Chiefs (8-5) have a one game lead over the 7-6 Chargers.  The Chargers end with a very soft schedule (SF, @ CIN, and @ DEN), and barring an upset should finish 10-6.  The Chiefs schedule is slightly rougher, though not by much (@ STL, TEN, OAK).  Even if the Chiefs drop one of those games and the Chargers win out, whichever team does not win the division will have a competitive case for the Wildcard. Regardless, both are real threats to the Jets.

The Jags (8-5) currently lead the AFC South by a game over the 7-6 Colts.  They will have a showdown next week, where a Jags win will clinch the division for them and presumably take the Colts out of the wildcard race.  A Colts win, however, keeps them alive and could further complicate matters.  The Jags end with WAS and @ HOU, while the Colts will finish @ OAK and against TEN.  Again, those are games in which the Jags and Colts will be favored to win.  A Jags win would be ideal for the Jets, as it wins them the division and eliminates the Colts as wildcard threats.


The Baltimore Ravens sit tied with the Jets at 9-4.  The Ravens have a tough matchup against the Saints next week, however they end with the Browns in Cleveland and at home against the Bengals to finish the year.  The Miami Dolphins, fresh off an important victory against the Jets, are still lurking at 7-6.  They'll take Bills and the Lions at home the next 2 weeks before the season finale against the Patriots, who at that point may have nothing to play for and will rest their starters.


If the Jets can go out and take care of business, they can make it easy on themselves.  Take games against the Steelers and Bears, and the playoffs are locked up.  But if the Jets lose to a pair of very good teams on the road and take a 9-6 record into week 17, and the rest of the other contenders take care of business, things will really start to get interesting.  And as a Jets fan, that's not good.  In this case, boring and safe is the way to go.  Jets control their destiny, they must go out and seize it.  Otherwise... it's the same ole Jets.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Just how bad ARE the Carolina Panthers? A look into the horrendous NFL teams of the decade.

The 2010 Carolina Panthers are a horrendous team.  Their 1-10 record is the worst record in football.  If the NFL were Adam Sandler movies, the Panthers would be Punch Drunk Love (if you haven't seen it, lucky you.  That's an hour and a half of my life that I will never get back).  They're so bad even Sloth from The Goonies is embarrassed for them.  Insane Clown Posse saw more success than the 2010 Carolina Panthers.  Any Panthers fans still watching their team should see psychologists for their masochism.  In other words, the Panthers suck.

The Panthers offensive output is simply pathetic.  They rank last in the NFL in total offense, last in pass offense, 22nd in rushing, and last in scoring offense.  They average 12.7 points per game.  They have scored 12 touchdowns in the 11 games they've played thus far.  They have turned the ball over 29 times, which amazingly is only second worst in the league ahead of the New York Giants (who have turned it over 30 times).  The Panthers have the 5th worst 3rd down rate at 32.3%.  They've been forced to punt more than all but Washington and Detroit.  I have a sneaking suspicion Cam Newton's Auburn offense could perform better than the Panthers.

Defensively they are much, much better... which isn't to say that they are good on defense, just not entirely inept.  The Panthers rank a respectable 14th in total defense, mostly on the strength of their 7th ranked pass defense.  Their run defense is 25th, however, and considering how the Panthers are often way behind in their games, it stands to reason that the Panthers have a good pass defense rating simply because other teams don't throw the ball much against them due to having the lead.  Perhaps most telling is their 24th ranked scoring defense, allowing 25.1 points per game.  Which goes to show that not only are they terrible at scoring points, they aren't very good at preventing points either.

The Panthers currently sit at a point differential (number of points scored minus the number of points allowed) of -136.  The only other team in football with a score worse than -100 is the 3-8 Arizona Cardinals, at -125.  If the Panthers keep up their average of getting outscored by 12.36 points a game, they will finish with a point differential of -198.  Simply horrendous.  I doubt they'll win another game this year.  How horrendous are they as compared to 5 most horrendous teams of the decade, going back to 2001-02 season?  Well, let's compare.

2008 Detroit Lions (0-16)
The team with which every bad team will be compared against.  The 2008 Detroit Lions failed to win a single football game out of 16 just 2 years ago.  They are the only team since the adoption of the 16 game schedule in the late 70's to lose every game, and the only team other than the expansion Tampa Bay Bucs to lose every game of the season since World War II.  They had a point differential of -249, an average of -15.6 per game.  The majority of their games weren't even competitive.  Only in 4 games did the Lions lose by a touchdown or less.  2 other games they lose by single digits.  The other 10 games?  Double digit losses.  Ouch.  The Lions ranked dead last in scoring and total defense, giving up 404.4 yards and 32.3 points per game.  The offense didn't fare much better, ranking 30th in total offense and 27th in scoring offense at 16.8 points a game.  5 quarterbacks threw passes for the 08 Lions, including Jon Kitna (ancient), Daunte Culpepper (not healthy or good enough to play for Oakland), Dan Orlovsky (once stepped out of bounds in his own end zone for a safety), and Drew Henson (yes, they actually allowed Drew Henson on the football field).  Matthew Stafford was the result of this debacle, and he's been a mixed bag due to injury.

Comparison:  The Panthers are bad, but they aren't this bad.

2009 St. Louis Rams (1-15)
While the 2009 Rams don't have the stench of a winless season, they were just a horrendous football team.  Despite beating the Lions 17-10 for their only win, a case can be made that they were actually worse than the '08 Lions.  They almost managed to pull off a clean sweep of league-worst incompetence, ranking dead last in scoring offense at 10.9 points per game (yes, you read that right... the Rams averaged less than 11 points per game), second to last in scoring defense at 27.3 points per game, and 29th in both total offense and total defense.  The offense scored 16 touchdowns on the year. The Rams also had a worse point differential than the Lions did, with a -261, an average of -16.3 per game.  Only 4 of their games, other than the game they won, were within a touchdown. The Rams scored in single digits 7 times, including being shut out twice, and had only 2 games of scoring 20 or more.  Despite having bell cow running back Steven Jackson, who had a very good year with 1700 total yards and a 4.4 yards per carry average, the Rams couldn't get even a mediocre effort from the 3 quarterbacks who took snaps for the Rams.  Marc Bulger, Kyle Boller, and Keith Null combined for 11 touchdown throws and 21 interceptions.  Josh Brown, the kicker, had nearly as many touchdown passes (1) in one pass as Keith Null had in 119 attempts (3) and Kyle Boller had in 176 attempts (also 3).  Pitiful.  The long term result, however, was Sam Bradford, so that's good.

Comparison: I think this team may be worse than the 2008 Lions, and definitely worse than Carolina.

2007 Miami Dolphins (1-15)
Rocked by the sudden departure of coach Nick Saban, the Dolphins nearly beat the Lions to winless glory.  However, the Phins managed to eek out a win in overtime against the Ravens after starting off 0-13.  The Phins were a little more hard luck than the other awful teams of the decade:  6 of their 15 losses were decided by 3 points.  They still had poor all around numbers: 26th in scoring offense, 28th in total offense, 30th in scoring defense, 23rd in total defense.  7 times the Dolphins gave up 35 or more points.  They had a -170 point differential, an average of -10.6 per game.  Surprisingly, this wasn't the worst point differential in the league (that belonged to the 3-13 Rams).  Still, when the majority of the teams snaps were taken by Cleo Lemon (who?), the head coach was fired after the year, and the only win you earned was in overtime... it's hard to label you as anything but one of the worst teams of the decade. Luckily, Jake Long and an 11 win season were to follow.

Comparison: They lost a lot of close games, so I think the Panthers may actually be worse.

2006 Oakland Raiders (2-14)
This Raiders team had a respectable defense.  They finished 18th in the league in points allowed, 3rd in total yardage, and beat a solid Steelers team based solely off the strength of the defense after gaining less than 100 yards on offense.  But offense is why they wind up on this putrid list.  The 2006 Raiders had THE worst offense of the decade.  They were BAD.  They ranked dead last in both total offense and scoring offense, 29th in rushing offense, and 31st in pass offense.  The Raiders scored 16 total touchdowns on the season.  Of those 16, 4 were on defense.  Basic math tells you that the Raiders scored only 12 touchdowns on offense.  TWELVE.  1-2.  Peyton Manning playing at his average level can put up 12 touchdowns in 4-5 games.  The 2010 Raiders put up 6 offensive touchdowns in one game this year.  The 06 Raiders had 12 in 16 games.  They averaged 10.5 points per game.  Their point differential was -164, not all-time bad but certainly not good, but that could be attributed to a defense that gave a Herculean effort.  Randy Moss flat out quit midway through the year.  The most unfortunate part?  With the #1 pick, the Raiders took JaMarcus Russell.  That's rubbing the wound with hydrochloric acid.

Comparison: The Raiders defense gives them the slight edge in my mind.  But man, that offense sucked.


2001 Carolina Panthers (1-15)
The 2001 season started off with a bang for George Seifert and the 2001 Panthers.  Rookie Steve Smith took the season's opening kickoff 93 yards for a touchdown and the Panthers marched their way to a 24-13 victory over the Vikings.  Unfortunately, that was the last time they marched to victory as they went on to lose the other 15 games all in a row.  The Panthers came close to that elusive second victory several times, losing 6 games by 3 points or less and another game by 4, with 2 games lost in overtime.  The Panthers managed a -157 point differential, an average of -9.8 per game, worst in the league.  They ranked second to last in total offense, last in total defense, 29th (in a 31 team league at the time) in scoring offense, and 28th in scoring defense.  Chris Weinke, a 300 year old rookie, took the brunt of the work under center, throwing 540 passes and notching a meager 11 touchdowns to 19 interceptions (though, Weinke DID score 6 rushing touchdowns... double the amount of all the runningbacks combined).  Matt Lytle, a name absolutely foreign to me, had 1 TD pass to 3 interceptions while starting one game (a 48-14 blowout loss to the Rams).  In keeping with their misfortune, the arrival of the expansion Houston Texans the next season meant that rather than get the #1 overall pick the Panthers worked so hard for, they got bumped down to #2.  This probably worked out for the better, however, as the Panthers got star defensive end Julius Peppers with the #2 pick while the Texans wound up with mega bust David Carr.

Comparison: The 2010 Panthers are horrific, but they aren't as horrific as their 2001 counterparts.

Honorable mentions go to other terrible teams such as the 2002 Bengals, 2004 Niners, 2005 Texans, 2008 Rams, and the 2008 Chiefs (my goodness, there were some bad teams in 2008). 

There is still some time for the Carolina Panthers to turn it around and avoid this list, but if they continue down their current path they'll go down in history as one of the all time bad teams.

The San Francisco Giants: Not a Band Of Misfits, But Rather, a Case Study In Draft Excellence

Since winning the World Series, the Giants have been branded with several labels.  Misfits.  Awful lineup.  Forgettable.  One of the worst champions in history.  They finished with a solid record, but their division was awful with the light-hitting Padres leading most of the way through the year.  The Giants were 9th in the National League and 17th in the Majors in runs scored.  Their World Series lineup was nothing scary.  Of their 9 hitters for the Series-clinching game 5, 3 of them didn't even start the year in the Giants 25 man roster.  2 of them, Pat Burrell and Cody Ross, were picked off the scrap heap.  World Series MVP SS Edgar Renteria is so nondescript that the Giants declined his option for next season. Certainly, when compared to the titan offense of Philadelphia, New York, and Texas, San Francisco simply didn't stack up.  The Giants won the old fashioned way: relying on their pitching and timely hitting from a few cornerstone players.  But more impressive is how they attained their pitching staff: through a series of hits in the draft.

The Giants won through the type of shrewd moves that teams must make when they don't have the finances of the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, or Mets.  The Giants have a respectable payroll number, 92 million dollars, 9th highest in the league.  But when you factor in how the money is divided, it isn't exactly efficient.  SP Barry Zito, who wasn't in the rotation for the playoffs, was paid 18.5 million.  Edgar Renteria, well as he played in the post-season, wasn't worth 10 million dollars in 2010.  Aaron Rowand was paid 13.6 million to bat .230 and hit 11 homers.  Jose Guillen was a 12 million dollar player who got designated for assignment, and the Giants paid for 47 games remaining on the year. 

Instead, it was the home grown staff and a stud rookie catcher than proved to be the difference.  Tim Lincecum, 2 time Cy Young award winner who beat Cliff Lee twice in the Series, was selected 10th overall in 2006.  Matt Cain, who twirled 2 post season shutouts including game 2 of the Series, was the 25th overall pick in 2002 out of high school.  Madison Bumgarner, the 21 year old rookie who looked beyond his years in throwing a game 4 shut out, was drafted 10th overall out of high school in 2007.  And the best hitter in the lineup, Buster Posey, was drafted 5th overall in 2008.  The Giants also picked up key staffers Jonathan Sanchez (27th round, 2004), closer Brian Wilson (23rd round, 2003), and set up Sergio Romo (28th round, 2005) later in the draft.  Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, and Bumgarner are the first entirely home grown playoff rotation to win the Series in 24 years.  Add on the 2 primary pieces on the back end, and that streak goes even longer.  Plus a rookie of the year hitter.  That is astounding drafting when you consider the sport, where going back to 1990, less than half of the overall #1 picks have ever made an MLB all-star game and a large amount of young, highly drafted players flame out in the majors or before they even reach that level.

Cornerstone players win games.  The Giants had that, and most of that was in the starting pitching rotation.  So before you label the Giants as "misfits" and "forgettable", just know that in the sport with the most hit-or-miss draft in North America, the Giants knocked several out of the park.  No pun intended.