The New Jersey Nets seemingly take another hit in their "It's All New" campaign, failing to close on a publicized and complicated 4 way deal with the Nuggets, Bobcats, and Jazz that would've brought Carmelo Anthony to New Jersey. The deal would've seen the Nuggets wind up with rookie Derrick Favors, Andrei Kirilenko, and 2 first round picks, the Jazz with Boris Diaw and Quinton Ross, and Charlotte with Devin Harris. The Nets of course would've wound up with Carmelo Anthony and possibly DJ Augustin from the Bobcats to serve as the backup point guard. The trade was set to go down, but the Nuggets got cold feet, fielded offers from other teams, other teams involved in the deal got impatient, and the deal fell through. In all, the Nets would've gotten Carmelo Anthony, an all-star, for Devin Harris, a rookie, and 2 first round picks. A good deal, right?
Well, no, not really.
The Nuggets are not dealing from a position of strength... and quite frankly, neither are the Nets. Carmelo Anthony holds the power here, with his ability to become a free agent at the end of the year. Essentially, he can dictate where he goes by refusing to extend with any team he doesn't want to play for... unless a team is happy to give up assets to rent Carmelo for a season. I don't see that as likely. There were conflicting reports as to whether or not he would agree to such an extension with the Nets, though the consensus believes the Nets wouldn't pursue Anthony without a strong indication he would sign longterm.
Denver's best course of action would've been to accept the deal... because history tells us disgruntled stars that change teams do not bring in a return the Nuggets were set to get. Derrick Favors was the #3 pick of the draft, already 240 pounds and strong with a 35.5 inch vertical and a 9'4" standing reach. Those athleticism numbers are all better than those produced by Amare Stoudemire. And he just turned 19 years old. Andrei Kirilenko is a useful player who can put up stats in every category on the court and, even better, represents 17.8 million dollars of expiring salary, which could be a useful piece at the trade deadline for cost cutting teams or for a big cap relief load at the end of the year. 2 first rounders are also helpful for a team looking to rebuild, particularly since one of them were coming from Golden State, a mediocre team who's pick should be early in the draft. In the meanwhile, the Nets would've lost 2 first round picks, Derrick Favors, and Devin Harris, a borderline all-star point guard when healthy. That's a significant loss of talent for a player who's situation says his value should be less.
Carmelo's situation is similar to that of another disgruntled superstar back in 2004... Vince Carter (who, ironically, also wound up with the Nets). Carter was fed up with Toronto's management and wanted out. The Raptors dragged it out, waiting and attempting to convince Carter to stay and be a good soldier... and killed his trade value. By mid-December, the relationship was irreparable and the Raptors had to take the best deal they could get. The predictably low ball offers netted them with a haul of: Eric Williams (a career 9 points per game player), Aaron Williams (who had less than 2 points per game in the season the trade went down), Alonzo Mourning (post-kidney disease, was immediately bought out and never reported to Toronto), and 2 future first round picks (both of which were later in the round because of the Nets team success, a lot having to do with Carter). Neither Williams was on an expiring contract. The assets gained by the Raptors were useless. The Nets in return got a 24 point scorer and a consistent all-star. Is Carmelo worth more than Vince Carter? Let's compare the 2's career numbers:
Carmelo Anthony: 24.7 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.1 APG, 45.9 FG%, 30.8 3P%, Player Efficiency Rating of 20.1
Vince Carter: 22.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.2 APG, 44.5 FG%, 37.5 3p%, Player Efficiency Rating of 21.1... granted some of these numbers were compiled since coming to NJ but he had seasons of 24, 25, 22, 21, and 21 PPG before being traded.
As we can see, Carmelo Anthony and Vince Carter are very close caliber players. Both were all-star caliber guys who can score in bunches and excite crowds. Carter had 2 seasons left on his deal when he was dealt... giving the Raptors some more leverage in moving him than the Nuggets currently do. Yet they got a WAY under value deal for Carter. They got no prospects the caliber of Derrick Favors. They didn't get a huge cap relief piece. They got, essentially, 2 mid-first round picks and a bunch of crap.
Don't expect a big return for Carmelo Anthony as time continues to march on. Denver doesn't want to wind up like the Cavaliers and the Raptors, who lost their franchise players to free agency with no compensation in return. They should've pulled the trigger on this deal, when the return is bigger than what Denver likely should receive. I have a suspicion that by mid-season Derrick Favors will have more than played his way off the offer table.
